The Written Wilds

Read that sentence again, because it still feels unreal even after the confirmation rolled in.

In the early hours of January 3, the United States carried out a military operation inside Venezuela, struck multiple strategic targets in and around Caracas, and removed President Nicolás Maduro from the country. By the end of the day, Maduro was no longer in Venezuela, no longer in power, and sitting in U.S. custody facing charges tied to narcotics trafficking and weapons offenses.

This wasn’t a leak. It wasn’t a rumor. It was announced directly by Donald Trump, who followed it up by saying the United States will govern Venezuela until what he called a “safe, proper, and judicious transition” can take place.

That sentence alone rewrites a lot of assumptions about how power is exercised in the Western Hemisphere in 2026.

What the U.S. Actually Did

The operation itself appears to have been deliberately limited but highly focused.

In the early morning hours, explosions were reported across Caracas and other major cities. Power outages followed. Targets included major military bases, ports, and infrastructure nodes. U.S. helicopters associated with special operations aviation were spotted over the capital, and later reporting confirmed that elite U.S. units were involved in Maduro’s arrest.

Maduro was flown out of the country and transported to a detention facility in New York. U.S. officials say he will face trial on charges that date back to indictments filed in 2020, centered on narcotics trafficking and alleged coordination with organized crime networks.

Trump made it clear this was not intended to be a full-scale invasion. He also made it equally clear that a second, larger wave had been planned if needed.

That combination matters. It signals restraint, but also leverage.

What’s Happening Inside Venezuela

Power inside Venezuela didn’t collapse instantly.

Within hours, the country’s Supreme Court named Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president. She immediately condemned the U.S. operation, framing it as colonial aggression. Reports suggest she is currently outside Venezuela, reportedly in Russia, which adds another layer of uncertainty.

The key question isn’t who holds the title today. It’s whether the system Maduro built can function without him.

For years, his government prepared for this exact scenario. That meant tightening internal security, mobilizing loyal military units, empowering paramilitary groups, and deepening ties with external partners like Russia, China, and Iran.

The removal of the central figure doesn’t automatically dismantle the structure. It tests how centralized it really was.

Public opinion complicates things further. Polling inside Venezuela suggests a significant portion of the population still viewed Maduro favorably. Among Venezuelans living abroad, support for U.S. intervention is dramatically higher. Any transition will have to navigate that divide.

Why Washington Did This Now

Officially, the Trump administration has framed the operation around drug trafficking and security threats. Unofficially, this has been building for months.

The U.S. had already increased naval deployments in the Caribbean, seized tankers, sanctioned Maduro’s inner circle, and tightened enforcement around Venezuelan oil exports. The capture itself appears to be the culmination of a long campaign rather than a sudden decision.

Trump also tied the move directly to the Monroe Doctrine, arguing that Venezuela had become a platform for foreign adversaries and offensive weapons in the Western Hemisphere. That framing is important. It signals that Washington sees this not as regime change abroad, but as hemispheric defense at home.

He also made no secret of the economic angle. Trump has openly said U.S. oil companies are preparing to invest billions into Venezuela’s energy sector, repair damaged infrastructure, and restore production for global markets.

That isn’t a side effect. It’s part of the strategy.

Two Paths Forward, Both Risky

From here, there are two realistic scenarios.

The first is escalation. The U.S. becomes more deeply involved in stabilizing Venezuela, protecting opposition figures like María Corina Machado, and managing internal resistance. That path would require a sustained presence and would almost certainly provoke continued backlash from Maduro loyalists and external allies.

The second is quieter and more transactional. Maduro faces trial, a deal is reached behind the scenes with successor authorities, U.S. influence shapes the transition, and Washington steps back while claiming a decisive win. Some opposition sources believe the capture itself may have been a negotiated exit rather than a chaotic takedown.

Which path is chosen will define whether this moment becomes a historical footnote or the opening chapter of a much larger conflict.

Why This Is Bad News for Russia

For Moscow, this is an unmistakable loss.

Russia invested heavily in Venezuela as a strategic partner, arms client, and geopolitical foothold in the Western Hemisphere. A Venezuela that reopens to U.S. capital, restores oil production, and exits Moscow’s orbit weakens Russia economically and symbolically.

If Venezuelan oil flows freely again, global supply increases. That puts downward pressure on prices at a moment when Russia depends heavily on energy revenue to sustain its war and economy. Even modest shifts can have outsized consequences.

Unsurprisingly, Moscow condemned the operation as armed aggression. The statement itself matters less than the reality behind it: Russia has limited ability to respond meaningfully.

A Shock With No Clean Ending Yet

This is one of those moments where the headline is accurate and still insufficient.

Yes, the U.S. captured Venezuela’s president. But what matters more is what comes next. Governance, legitimacy, oil markets, regional stability, and global power signaling are now tangled together.

The United States has made a dramatic move and backed it with force. Venezuela is entering an uncertain transition. Russia just lost a key ally. And global markets are watching closely.

This may ultimately be remembered as a bold, contained operation that reshaped Venezuela’s future.

Or it may be the moment when restraint gave way to something much harder to control.

Either way, the era where this kind of action was unthinkable is clearly over.